Horse Racing Calculator, Software & Betting Systems
Odds-On probably differs from other horse racing web sites you may have visited. Rather than giving tips based on race form or stable information, it strives to highlight value bets using the odds compiled from our unique software program.
As such, the site is based more on science, statistics and applied mathematics, than it is on conventional tipping, handicap ratings, or race form.
Can the punter win at horse racing ?
Visit any UK high street and you see at least one bookmakers shop. These bookmakers pay wages to their employees, shares to their shareholders, betting tax to the government. Bookmakers would not exist unless there were significant amounts of money being lost by punters who gamble on sports and racing events. It's a fact that, as a whole, the majority of punters lose money. But maybe not necessarily all punters !
I have had this thought for a while "it's not so much a war between punter and bookmaker, but a war between the casual punter and the astute punter, with the bookmaker acting as broker or middleman".
How can you share in the bookmakers profit ?
I can only think of one way - through the disciplined application of science and mathematics - by using the same methods that bookmakers to find value.
After all - successful horse race betting is not just about backing winner’s, it’s about backing horses at value odds. If you can beat the book, if you can bet at odds higher than the true probability of winning, then in the long run you should be able to make a profit.
This is easier said than done ! Bookmakers pay big money to head hunt and employ highly qualified odds compilers. These people have all the necessary skills, tools, software and sports knowledge to create very accurate betting forecasts.
But it's this human intervention and subjective ness that is also the weakness in the bookmakers strategy.
Study the starting price [SP] of horses in any race and compare SP against the original tissue prices. They can vary quite considerably due to market forces and inaccuracies in the original tissue market.
Did you know ?
If you could predict that the tissue odds would increase or decrease - then you can make a profit no matter what horse won the race !
Just like, when trading shares on financial markets, the creation of betting exchanges, has allowed punters to trade odds in horse racing markets. By buying high and selling low, or vice versa, a hedge bet is created.
We have included a horse racing calculator program that calculates the necessary bet size and profits that will be made from hedge bets. The calculator is FREE to use - feel free to try out. You can either use on it's own or in conjunction with our own compiled odds.
How does the maths work ?
If you could identify that the tissue odds of a horse is a race do not represent the true chance of winning, then you could bet or lay that horse. if you continued to to this as part of your betting strategy - then in the long term you would make a profit.
i.e. Using the toss of a coin as an example :-
The true odds of a heads or tails is even money [a 50% probability of either a heads or a tail].
If you could back heads or tails at 5/4 or lay heads or tails at 4/5 - then you have beaten the book and if you bet using that strategy over a long period then you will be profitable. The bigger the difference between the true odds and actual bet odds, the bigger the percentage return on investment [%ROI].
More detail about this subject can be found under mathematics of betting.
How can you identify value bets ?
Value bets are identified through our horse racing software. This program or model is at the beta stage development. As such it is under review and we occasionally " tweak" the model to improve its accuracy. The current SP prediction accuracy is approximately 55% i.e. the software can predict the final SP for 55% of the horses in any one race.
The predicted odds are in the form of a sports book which shows the true betting odds for each horse in the race. The sports books are in the form of an electronic HTML tables. You can access these tables for FREE - there is NO subscription, sign up or membership application forms to complete - no specialized software is required on your part..
Although the forecasts can be used as is, the best value betting opportunities are identified with either :-
- (+) = Good value
- (-) = Poor value
Click here for the most recent horse racing betting tips .
Putting the theory into practice
This year we thought we would publish the forecasts in an effort to demonstrate that the betting strategy and theory work in practice.
We had the choice of betting/laying the value bets or using the calculator to create a hedge bet.
The hedge betting strategy represented the lowest risk but probably realizes a lower ROI. Backing or laying the value horses has a higher risk but is likely to have a higher ROI. For this reason we selected the value betting strategy.
Starting at the beginning of the 2009 flat season, in March, and ending November, we are going to apply the strategy and monitor the progress on this site. This will take in the big races and racing festivals such as Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor and Epsom Derby etc.
Click here for the most recent horse racing results .
We will start with a £1,000 betting bank, and stake bets to a value proportional to the calculated [true] betting odds of the value horses (+) highlighted by the racing model.
The goal is to make a profit come the end of the flat season in November 2009.
No doubt there will be some "ups and downs" during the season – but the intent is to stick with the strategy to deliver a profit come November.
One Last point !
The number of punters making a living from betting are few and far between. There are no guarantees in life - that certainly holds true in betting and gambling. The tips and advice provided on this site are FREE , how you choose to use this information is your choice, the risks associated with your decision are yours alone.
That said, we will be following the selections with our own “hard earned” so have a vested interest in the outcome.
Best of luck, whatever you decide.
................ Nick Hilton.